{"id":1331318,"date":"2024-06-20T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agriland.ie\/?p=1331318"},"modified":"2024-06-19T17:13:11","modified_gmt":"2024-06-19T16:13:11","slug":"tillage-ahdb-points-to-downturn-in-global-grain-output","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lightsail.agriland.ie\/farming-news\/tillage-ahdb-points-to-downturn-in-global-grain-output\/","title":{"rendered":"Tillage: AHDB points to downturn in global grain output"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is pointing to a projected downturn in some global grain output trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This follows that the releases by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For wheat, Russia\u2019s production was cut considerably, which, as well as cuts across Ukraine and Europe, has consequently tightened the global 2024\/25 balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was some tightening to the global 2024\/25 maize balance too, both compared to 2023\/24 and last month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, 2023\/24 production figures for Brazil and Argentina <\/a>were unchanged, opposing the average analyst expectation of a downward revision for both regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global soybean ending stocks for 2023\/24 remain the second highest on record (behind 2018\/19), despite a marginal cut to Brazilian production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this could become the third highest should the projected 2024\/25 ending stocks be achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wheat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Globally, the wheat outlook is reported to have a tighter balance next year (2024\/25), largely as a result of the smaller supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wheat production in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU has been reduced, outweighing the modest increase in global opening stockings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hot and dry weather followed by the frosts during May in Russia resulted in the wheat crop being cut from 88.0 Mt in May to 83.0 Mt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This aligns more closely with recent forecasts from Russia\u2019s Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) and SovEcon of 81.5 Mt and 80.7 Mt respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"FAO<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Despite a modest rise of production in the US (+0.5 Mt) and a decrease in global feed demand, the substantial drop of production across key producing regions tightens the projected global wheat <\/a>balance for 2024\/25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maize<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For the 2023\/24 Brazilian crop, the average analyst expectation for maize production ahead of the WASDE report being released was a reduction of 1.1 Mt (London Stock Exchange Group). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, for Argentina average expectation was for a 2.1 Mt cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in contrast to average analyst expectations, there was no change on the month regarding the ongoing 2023\/24 maize harvests in Brazil and Argentina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, total maize exports rose following slight increases for Russia and South Africa and edged global end of season stocks lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"maize<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead to 2024\/25, global maize production is projected to be relatively unchanged on the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the slightly lower opening stocks and an increase to imports tightens ending stocks to closely align with the average analyst estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soybeans<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although, on average, analysts expected Brazil\u2019s 2023\/24 soybean production estimate to fall to 151.8 Mt, the USDA has only only cut production by 1.0 Mt to 153.0 Mt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Argentina, 2023\/24 production was left unchanged on the month at 50.0 Mt, which closely aligns with the average analyst estimate and the latest Buenos Aires exchange estimate of 50.5 Mt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, world ending stocks remain the second highest ever at 111.1 Mt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For 2024\/25, estimates remained relatively unchanged on the month. World ending stocks are forecasted at 128.5 Mt which, if achieved, would be the largest ending stocks on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is largely supported by Brazil\u2019s projected record crop of 169.0 Mt.<\/p>\n\n\n