There is “clear evidence” that humans are changing Ireland’s climate, according to new research from Maynooth University’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre
The study, published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Weather and Climate Extremes, called for climate adaptation measures, particularly in the area of flood protection.
The researchers analysed Irish temperature and rainfall records, some dating back to 1850, and changes to global temperature fluctuations.
They then quantified how much Ireland’s climate has change since “early industrial conditions”.
Climate
The researchers found that the island of Ireland is warming at a rate of 0.88°C per 1° increase in global temperature.
They report that “annual temperatures now ‘unfamiliar’ relative to early industrial climate”.
The east and midlands show the greatest rate of warming in annual temperature, the highest at Phoenix Park which is warming at 1.14° for every degree increase in global temperature.
Other locations including Armagh, Birr, and Dublin, all had warming at a rate of over 1°.
While many stations show the emergence of unusual climate for spring, summer and autumn mean temperature, no forced signal of change was found for winter.
Research
The scientists also examined rainfall data which showed that many weather stations across the country are experiencing substantial increases in winter rainfall per degree of global warming.
This indicates “considerable increases in flood risk”, they said.
One third of the 30 rainfall stations analysed also show increases in rainfall intensity, the heavy rainfall that often causes surface flooding.
On average, rainfall intensity in Ireland is increasing at a rate of 8.2% per degree of global warming.
Prof. Conor Murphy, of ICARUS and the Department of Geography at Maynooth University, said that “human driven climate change is now discernible in Irish weather records”.
“Of the 903 climate indicators we analysed across the study, 37% show the emergence of conditions we would consider at least ‘unusual’ relative to early industrial or natural climate.
“These results clearly tell us that adaptation to the impacts of climate change needs to be given greater emphasis in national and local climate policy,” he said.
“Climate change is here, and it is evident in our weather observations.
“It also gives us a new tool that allows local scale changes in climate to be scaled to global mean surface temperature, providing insight into how past, and importantly future changes, at the global scale relate to Ireland,” Murphy added.
The research was conducted with the MSc Climate Change class at Maynooth University, together with researchers at Maynooth and Met Éireann and funded by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).